Restrictive policies manifest in US, Canada enrolment drop

The collapse in interest from international students in studying in the United States and Canada, charted over the past year by Studyportals and others, is now manifest in enrolments in North American colleges and universities.

In this year’s Global Enrolment Benchmark Survey (GEBS), American colleges reported a 6% decline in international undergraduates, erasing the 6% increase in the 2024 GEBS.

The 19% decline in masters students, by far the largest category of international students in the country, enrolled in the 201 American universities reporting, was more than three times the size of last year’s decline.

Canadian numbers can be compared to a snowball going downhill. After last year’s decline of 27% for undergraduates reported in last year’s GEBS, Canadian universities reported a further 36% decline, making a cumulative decline since 2023 of 53%. The 35% decline in international graduate students follows on last year’s reported decline of 30%.

Cara Skikne, Studyportals’ head of communication and thought leadership, told University World News that “90% of Canadian institutions and 85% of US institutions have told us that restrictive government policies and visa hurdles are dragging down enrolments, casting a deepening shadow of uncertainty over the year ahead.”

Additionally, in the case of the United States, there is the fear factor felt by international students who have seen months of news reports about international students and others on visas being forcibly arrested over alleged national security concerns since President Donald J Trump returned to power in January.

GEBS is based on an online survey completed by 461 universities in 63 countries around the world. The survey was open from 6 to 24 October 2025 and is designed to catch enrolment data for the January to March 2026 semester.

GEBS was conducted for the Washington DC-based NAFSA (Association of International Educators), the Oxford Test of English and the Netherlands-based education analytics and consulting company, Studyportals, with support from the Canadian Bureau for International Education, the European Association for International Education, the Asia-Pacific Association for International Education, and Universities UK International.

Mixed picture in Europe

While the growth in international enrolment reported this year by universities in the United Kingdom doesn’t quite erase last year’s decline, the trend is certainly welcome.

At the bachelor level, universities reported a 3% increase, seven percentage points better than last year’s 4% decline. The difference was even greater at the masters level, where a decline of 17% was replaced by an increase of 3%.

International enrolment in European bachelor programmes was essentially flat, at +1%, which is one percentage point lower than last year’s 2% increase. The continent reports a healthy 5% increase in masters students as opposed to last year’s 2% increase.

According to Skikne: “Underlying enrolment shifts across Europe tell a dynamic story. Reported enrolment changes were mixed. More universities in Italy and France, for example, reported higher enrolments, while many Belgian universities reported fewer international students.

“Visa and policy barriers are reshaping global enrolment patterns. Top destinations once seen as unshakeable are losing ground while new contenders surge forward and reshape the balance of power in international education.”

Increases in Asia

As might be expected given the findings in the Asia, Latin America and MENA in global education: Emerging trends as destination and source regions (Emerging Trends) report published by Studyportals last month, large increases in the number of students from Japan, China and India looking to remain in Asia have resulted in Asian universities reporting an 8% increase in international bachelor’s students and a 3% increase in masters students.

Overall, the percentage of universities worldwide reporting higher and lower international enrolments at the bachelor level was almost the same, with 30% reporting higher and 37% reporting lower enrolment.

The isomorphism was not evident at the masters level, with 31% of universities reporting lower enrolment but 45% reporting increased masters enrolment.

At 18%, Asia is the region with the lowest number of universities reporting decreased bachelor’s enrolment, followed by Europe at 28% and then Britain at 39%. By contrast, 82% of Canadian and 48% of American universities reported lower international bachelor’s enrolment.

The per cent of universities reporting increased masters enrolment is broadly similar, with the highest percentage being among 43% of European universities and the lowest, 32%, being among American universities – except for Canada, where only 6% of universities reported an increased international undergraduate enrolment.

At the graduate level, only 7% of Canadian universities reported increases in enrolment while 71% reported decreases. In the US, the percentages were 18 and 63, respectively.

Just over a third of Asian universities reported increases in enrolment while exactly a quarter reported decreases; a quarter of European universities reported lower enrolment, while 45% reported increases. In the UK 50% reported lower enrolment and 39% reported higher enrolment.

Government polices

Overall, more than two-thirds of institutions reported that “Restrictive government policies” impeded enrolment, with that number rising to 90% in Canada, followed by 85% in the US, 59% in Europe and 51% in the UK; only 19% of Asian universities highlighted restrictive government policies.

One Canadian university told Studyportals: “The ongoing IRCC [Immigration, Refugee, Citizenship Canada, the ministry charged with issuing student visas] policy changes – particularly the national cap on study permits, new proof-of-funds requirements, and shifting PGWP eligibility – have created uncertainty and damaged Canada's reputation as a reliable study destination.”

Studyportals also heard from US universities, with one saying: “The loss of funding to grants has limited assistantship offers, which will make accepting and paying full tuition much more difficult for graduate students.”

A separate university told Studyportals: “We know for sure that the travel bans and pause on visa appointments negatively impacted degree-seeking international students planning to come to our university this fall.”

Affordability concerns

Affordable tuition and the cost of living were concerning to 72% of British university officials, 31% of universities in Asia and 47% in the US. Ironically, Canada scored well on his measure; only 15% of universities thought affording tuition and the cost of living represented a major obstacle to international students.

Lack of suitable housing was the third major concern for European universities (32%), US institutions (35%) and British universities (8%). At 8%, the third major concern for Canadian universities was “Meeting academic requirements”.

Diversification plans

The next 12 months are likely to be trying times on Canadian campuses. Sixty per cent of Canadian universities predict budget cuts and 50% expect staffing cuts.

Given that the federal government just announced another round of international student visa cuts – and the fact that Canadian universities did not enrol this year’s allotment of international students – it is difficult to see where the 60% of Canadian universities, which listed diversification into new markets as their number one plan over the next 12 months, plan on diversifying to.

Thirty-nine per cent of American universities also put diversifying into new markets at the top of their wish list, while 35% put having “more aggressive enrolment goals” as a second plan for the upcoming year.

In some ways, these plans are one and the same, and, given that, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, some 43 million Americans have “stopped out”, meaning they have some college but no degree, the nation surely has a pool of people who, in theory, could be enticed back into the nation’s lecture halls.

Over a quarter, 28%, of American universities expect budget cuts, though this figure should be taken with several grains of salt given that cuts by the United States government agencies have already led to announced plans to close programmes and many institutions have announced suspensions of graduate programmes and closures of campuses: in Pennsylvania alone, the University of Pennsylvania announced the closure of seven branch campuses last May.

Half of British universities plan on diversifying into new markets, 36% plan to be more aggressive in reaching enrolment goals and 33% expect budget cuts. The figures for Europe are 30%, 35% and 19%, respectively.

Judging from their plans over the next year, Asian university officials appear relatively pleased with the forecast. Only 27% plan on being more aggressive in enrolment and less than a quarter in diversifying into new markets. For these universities, their third most important plan (12%) over the next year is to increase the use of artificial intelligence.