US$3.4 billion loss from drop in international students

The loss of 111,000 international students in the school year that has just begun will cost the United States US$3.4 billion and almost 40,000 jobs, says a new study from NAFSA: Association of International Educators and JB International, a US-based education management company.

But the losses will compound over the coming years as the absence of students in year one of a programme becomes an absence in year two and, if the programme is longer, in subsequent years, says Fanta Aw, CEO of NAFSA.

“For institutions who may not have students here this fall, it’s not just a one-year problem. If it’s undergraduates, you’re talking about a four-year problem. If it’s a graduate masters level, it’s at least a two-year problem. If it’s a doctoral programme, it’s a seven-year problem,” Aw told University World News.

Further, since there is no reason to believe that the administration of US President Donald J Trump will change direction and issue 111,000 more visas next year than it did last year, the math Aw adumbrates adds up to billions more lost.

Assuming the US issues the same number of visas for the 2027 and 2028 school year as it has for the 2026 to 2027 school year (1,057,000), then next year’s incoming class of undergraduates and graduate students will also be 111,000 students lower than the 2024 and 2025 class, resulting in roughly doubling the financial loss – as American colleges and universities will have lost 222,000 students, with all the attendant downstream economic effects.

Worked out over the four years of the typical BA programme, there would likely be almost 444,000 fewer international students, which translates into an eye-watering US$13.6 billion and 160,000 jobs connected to the sector.

Data provided to University World News from Studyportals suggests that prospective international students will be avoiding the United States in ever-increasing numbers.

Because Studyportals’ data is based on page-views by current high school or university or graduate students, it is a strong predictor of enrolment two-years in the future.

Year-over-year, on 14 August, interest in studying in the United States amongst Indian students had declined by 22%, by Bangledeshis by 59.7%, Nigerians by 49%, British by 45%, Canadians by 52%.

Unsurprising decline in international students

The decline in students, which returns the number of international students to the same level as the last year of COVID, 2022 and 2023, and the attendant economic declines predicted by the study come as no surprise to Aw or other experts.

As University World News’ reports have shown, international interests in enrolling in American colleges and universities started declining within weeks of Trump’s return to power in January 2025, with Studyportals reporting a 42% decline in interest in that first month.

In July 2025, NAFSA predicted a decline of between 30% and 40%, or 80,000 international students, for the academic year that ended last June.

In October, interest in US postgraduate degrees had fallen by 61%; the vast majority of international students in the US are postgraduate students. A month later, the US reported that the number of international students in the country had fallen by 17% to 1,168,520.

In an email to University World News, Michael T Nietzel, president emeritus of Missouri State University and co-author of the recently published book No Confidence: When College Faculty Turn Against Their
Presidents (Johns Hopkins UP), the “downward spiral” is a “consequence of the administration’s regressive immigration policies”.

Aw characterised the administration’s policies, which include bans on a number of countries and slow-walking visa approvals and a number of other restrictive practices, as “a self-inflicted wound”.

“The projected decline in international students is not surprising given the cumulative effect of visa restrictions, uncertainty and the perception that the United States is becoming less welcoming,” Lynn Pasquerella, president of the American Association of Colleges & Universities, wrote in an email to University World News.”

Estimated losses at state level

NAFSA’s report shows that the total number of jobs supported by international students will fall to 294,000 – 12,000 fewer than in 2021 and 2022 and 41,000 fewer than in 2021 and 2023, the worst years of the COVID crisis. California will lose just under half a billion dollars this academic year, while New York will lose US$470 million. Massachusetts and Michigan will each lose US$284 million.

Nor are “deep red”, Trump-supporting states immune. Florida will lose US$119 million and Texas US$199 million. Smaller Trump-supporting states like Louisiana, Utah and South Dakota will lose US$24 million, US$25 million and US$5 million, respectively.

According to the Florida-based Andrew Ness, Studyportals’ senior vice-president of analytics and consulting for North America, NAFSA’s report “really reveals significant community revenue loss, distributed across all areas of the US.

Smaller regions that have thriving colleges and universities have done very well with international students are [now being] put at risk.”

Further, he explained to University World News: “Those local economies will suffer. This isn’t fanciful money that doesn’t get into people’s hands. It drives economic growth and sustains these economies in some cases.”

Nietzel, Aw and Pasquerella all made similar points, with Pasquerella writing that “the consequences will be felt far beyond college campuses. International students contribute to the intellectual and cultural vitality of our institutions, strengthen communities and local economies, and enrich the educational experience for all students.

When they choose to study elsewhere, we lose not only tuition and jobs but [also] ideas, relationships and the talent that fuels innovation.”

Aw also noted the incongruence between the administration’s message about wanting to build a prosperous American economy and its restrictive international student policies.

“We do not think that you can have a strong economy, a prosperous America, a safe America and have it completely divorced from the benefits and the importance of international education, particularly when one knows the history of what international education has done specifically for this country. This is not congruent with what you're saying are your priorities.

“How do you make this country safer when you’ve closed your door to some of the world’s best talent and when that talent historically has benefitted this country?” asked Aw.

For his part, Nietzel wrote: “Beyond its implications for revenue and budgets, the decline will mean that America falls further behind in the competition for talent and a skilled workforce.”

‘Weaponising’ student displacement

Both Aw and Ness spoke to University World News in depth about how the politics of international students has been mixed up with the politics of what the administration bills as its fight against illegal immigrants.

“This is an administration,” says Aw, “that when it came in, talked about illegal immigration as being a top agenda item. This is not about illegal immigration.”

The US has a robust system which allows the authorities to know where students are and to ensure they are not overstaying their visas or not complying with US policies, said Ness.

Besides the category error that equates international students with immigrants, Ness further explained, is the narrative “that domestic students are somehow displaced because of international students that’s been weaponised by politicians. That notion is false, but it’s been weaponised when it’s going to benefit someone [that is, a politician]”.

Ness, who has extensive experience working with higher education institutions in enrolment management in the US (as well as Canada and elsewhere), said that it’s “never been the case that domestic students are unfairly treated or treated in a second-class way.

“It simply doesn’t happen at public universities [the vast majority of American college and university students attend public universities]”.

Long history of exclusionary measures

Speaking more broadly about the Trump administration’s restrictive policies – including full or partial bans on students from 39 countries and, especially in the cases of India and China (the two countries that send the two largest contingents to the US), increased numbers of visa applications being rejected – Aw responded to a question about how this fits with American history and its history of exclusion of immigrants by race.

She pointed out that in recent decades the US had opened its doors to large numbers of international students. Yet, she said, this “was never altruistic, irrespective of which government was in power.

It was always about what was in the interest of the US. Sometimes, it was in the interest of the US having good relationships with other nations because it could benefit them [that is, the US] in that moment or in the future.”

Secondly, she noted that the Trump administration’s reversal of this welcoming policy amounts to a page from an old playbook. In America, “there has been a long history of exclusionary measures, such as the Chinese Exclusion Act.”

Passed in 1882, the act put in place a ten-year ban on Chinese immigration; removed the right of Chinese residents, most of whom came to the US as labourers, from becoming US citizens.

In 1892 these provisions were extended and were made permanent in 1904. They were removed in 1943 when China was a US ally in the Second World War, though because of the war, there could be no immigration from China.

“We’ve seen other examples of intentional exclusion of specific peoples based on nationality,” said Aw. She was pointing here to acts and policies banning Jews, Koreans, Japanese, Filipinos, Blacks, Poles, Greeks, Italians and others.

“What we’re seeing is that playbook being used today. It’s not new to American history, but it is [being followed] with renewed fervour,” she said.

US behind in competition for talent

What does this drastic decline in the number of students tell Americans about their country? Nietzel answered: “Beyond its implications for revenue and budgets, the decline will mean that America falls further behind in the competition for talent and a skilled workforce.”

Aw was asked about the silence from Republican governors about the hundreds of millions of dollars that their states will lose because of international students voting with their feet and going to some other country to study.

Her analysis focused on the deep political divide in the US and that because of that divide, “there is loyalty to the chief. There is no deviation from loyalty to the chief,” meaning Trump and his administration.

What does this drastic decline in the number of American students tell prospective students about the US?

“The message the United States is sending to the rest of the world,” says Pasquerella, “is deeply troubling: that the door to American higher education and opportunity may no longer be as open as it once was. For generations, international students have chosen the United States because they believed that talent, hard work and intellectual curiosity would be welcomed here.

“If that confidence is lost, rebuilding it will take far longer than reversing a visa policy. The world has many other places eager to welcome the students, scholars and innovators we are turning away. They understand that addressing the grand challenges humanity faces requires ongoing global collaboration.”