‘Chaos’ expected as new visa compliance rules now due in June

New compliance metrics for universities enrolling foreign students are set to be implemented from June, stoking fears about the potential scale of breaches amid rocketing visa refusal rates.

Times Higher Education understands that long-awaited changes are now set to come into force this summer after being pushed back by several months. UK Visas and Immigration (UKVI) is yet to publish official guidance but this has now been signed off by government officials.

As compliance metrics are calculated retrospectively and the annual start date varies by institution, many universities could find themselves being judged on their January intake figures, despite widespread complaints across the higher education sector about severe delays to visa processing and alleged higher refusal rates than usual.

Under the new rules, the thresholds set out under the Basic Compliance Assessment (BCA) will tighten. This means a sponsor must maintain a course enrolment rate of at least 95 per cent (up from 90 per cent), a course completion rate of 90 per cent (up from 85 per cent) and a visa refusal rate less than 5 per cent (down from 10 per cent), in order to meet the new rules.

Sponsors that fail to meet any of the BCA metrics could have their sponsorship licence revoked. 

Sources familiar with government discussions suggested that the Home Office does not want to see a university lose its licence and is looking to apply some transitional measures and discretion within the first year of the new policy coming into effect. This is understood to relate to institutions that may breach the new thresholds but that would have been compliant under the old thresholds.

The Home Office is also thought to be allowing more flexibility for providers that typically enrol fewer than 100 international students. 

Government estimations published last year suggested 22 higher education institutions would not have met at least one of the tightened criteria. 

“From what I’m hearing on the ground, I’d say perhaps [there] could be more than that,” said Jonathan Hill, senior manager at Fragomen immigration firm.

The Home Office also plans to introduce a red-amber-green (RAG) banding system to rate the BCA performance of each sponsor. 

Under current plans, universities will be classified as amber if they fall within 1 per cent either side of the acceptable threshold – meaning even those institutions that are compliant may not achieve a green rating. 

“It’s just going to increase anxiety in the sector really, given the fact that 5 per cent is quite a tight percentage to be within, and then to have to be under 4 per cent to have a green rating is going to be even more of a concern,” said Hill. 

This list, which is not expected to be published until 2027, will be publicly available, leaving universities worried that this could damage their commercial prospects. 

It will “send out a perception that universities do not take visas and immigration seriously, because there will be lots of amber, given it will be so hard to become green”, said Harry Anderson, deputy director at Universities UK International (UUKi). 

“That [perception] is not true, objectively,” he continued. “We perform exceptionally well internationally [compared with visa refusal rates in other countries]. 

“There are very high levels of compliance within our immigration system when it comes to our higher education sector and there is a big risk for the government that the RAG ratings will, in effect, give a gift to those politicians who are far more sceptical over the enormous value and contribution which international students make to the UK.”

The changes follow a chaotic period for international enrolments, with some overseas students facing visa delays that saw them miss their start date for the January 2026 intake. Universities claim that a lack of transparency from UKVI about student visa processes will make it harder for them to be compliant with the new metrics. 

“At present, there is a clear disconnect between UKVI and the UK university sector,” said Donal O'Connor, director of future students at the University of South Wales. 

“Without open, transparent and timely communication, institutions are forced to operate in the dark, massively increasing both compliance risk and operational disruption. 

“It feels like policy by stealth, and this does not work, and ultimately damages outcomes for government, providers and students alike. Add the revised BCA rates into the mix, and chaos ensues.”

UUKi’s Anderson added: “The margins are now so tight that we cannot allow delays in visa processing to put our members at risk.

“The changes being introduced will essentially lead to much lower risk tolerance among our members when it comes to their international student recruitment. That will mean the progress we have been making on diversifying our international student recruitment risks going into reverse.”

Universities have long bemoaned the lack of real-time data-sharing by the Home Office, which they say prevents them from taking an informed approach to international student recruitment. Ailing government systems are thought to be to blame for many of the limitations.

Pat Saini, partner and head of immigration at Penningtons Manches Cooper, said technical problems within UKVI systems have not been resolved, yet the visa refusal rate is being reduced, “so the room for error is totally gone”. 

“These issues need to be resolved before any BCA changes are implemented,” she said.

Saini added that it appeared there was a decision taken before the January intake to scrutinise applications from certain nationalities more. 

“Clearly there was a plan, so why could UKVI not have communicated that with the sector earlier?

“Instead, what’s happened is the enrolment dates have passed and suddenly institutions are being asked to extend these, which presents logistical challenges for educators.”

The Home Office was contacted for comment.