American colleges and universities are heading for a decline of between 30% and 40% – or 80,000 international students – in the semester set to begin in a few weeks when compared to the 2024 to 2025 academic year, says a report released by NAFSA: Association of International Educators.
This decline would see American universities enrolling 1,007,956 international students – 50,000 fewer than during the 2022 to 2023 academic year at the end of the COVID pandemic and only 60,000 more than during 2021 to 2022, when international enrolment was sharply curtailed by the epidemic – says the report, Fall 2025 International Student Outlook and Economic Impact (Fall 2024 Outlook), released on 30 July.
The (Fall 2024 Outlook) reverses NAFSA’s prediction, made earlier in 2025, that the number of international students would either grow modestly or remain substantially unchanged.
The predicted decline in international students will cut US$7 billion off of the previously predicted US$46.1 billion economic contribution international students make to the US economy, leading to a loss of 60,000 jobs, the report says.
“We anticipated that there would be a potential decline in international students given the set of actions and issues that have been taking place over a period of time,” Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO of NASFA, told University World News.
“So we pulled the SEVIS data, we have the IE Open Doors data, and we also pulled together data about visa issuance from the US government and compared it to last year. The findings are that there could be a 30% to nearly 40% decline in new international students enrolled in the fall,” she said.
Based in Washington, DC, NASFA works with 4,300 institutions worldwide to encourage international education. Its analytical partner for Fall 2024 Outlook is the Bloomington, Indiana-based JB International, which has worked for 60 years in international education and immigration.
Reasons for drastic drop
NASFA cites four reasons for the precipitous drop in international enrolment in the US. The first is the suspension between 27 May and 18 June of student visa interviews.
On 27 May, Secretary of State Marco Rubio cabled American embassies saying: “Effective immediately, in preparation for an expansion of required social media screening and vetting, consular sections should not add any additional student or exchange visitor (F, M, and J) visa appointment capacity until further guidance is issued.” (‘F’ visas are issued to academic students, ‘M’ visas are issued to vocational students, and ‘J’ visas are issued to State Department-approved exchange programmes).
Although Rubio’s cable indicated that he “anticipate[d]” that the new guidance would be sent “in the coming days”, such guidance was not forthcoming until after mid-June.
“As announced on 18 June,” NAFSA says, the resumption of interviews carried a directive that US consulates implement new social media vetting protocols and restore appointments within five days.” Yet, NAFSA continues, “scant guidance [was] provided.”
According to Aw, in regard to the vetting of social media accounts, the government provided very little information about “what, exactly, they are looking for with social media vetting and how?”
Nor were the processes specified.
“What we do know is that when students go and apply for a visa, when they're able to get an interview, and they go in and they submit their application and everything else, it [the application] is put on administrative processing initially, while the vetting of social media takes place.
“So, there's a second stage of vetting now that has been introduced, which means, again, time is ticking. It’s after that that the students know whether or not it's a go or no go,” she noted.
Turning for a moment from her macro analysis, Aw spoke of the impact on students. She added that the present situation, “introduces another level of anxiety and uncertainty for students who are waiting for that process to come on”.
The second reason for the decline in the number of visas having been issued at this critical stage of the application cycle is the reduced number of consular interview appointments open to students wishing to apply to study in the US.
Indian and Chinese students comprised almost half of the international student cohort, with Indian students totalling 331,602 and Chinese 277,398. According to NAFSA, Nigeria’s 20,229 students studying in the US formed the seventh largest cohort of international students, and Japan’s 13,959 students (the 13th largest cohort). Like these students, Indian and Chinese students faced long wait times.
On 27 July, Adarsh Khandelwal, co-founder of Collegify, an online university application portal, told the Mumbai-based The Economic Times of India about delays getting interviews.
“For some cities like Ahmedabad, it has been even worse (than other cities), leaving many unsure about their Fall 2025 plans. Even after the visa services resumed last month, appointment availability still remains erratic, with slots vanishing within seconds and wait times stretching up to 60 days in metros,” he said.
The third reason NASFA suspects for the decreasing number of visas being issued is a downward trend in acceptances. Between January and April 2025, the US issued 12% fewer F1 visas than it had the previous year, while the figure for May 2025 was down 22%. June figures are not yet in, but NAFSA fears that the decrease could be between 80% and 90%.
The declining rate of visa issuance, Aw noted, predates President Donald J Trump’s return to power.
“We know that the denial rate for visas has been going on for a period of time prior to the Trump administration. Even under the previous administration, there was a high visa denial rate for countries in the Global South, in particular, many countries in Africa, India, et cetera,” said Aw.
The fourth reason is the visa bans that Trump put in place against 19 countries, including Afghanistan, Myanmar, Chad, the Republic of the Congo, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. These countries, NAFSA found, contribute US$3 billion to the US economy and support 25,000 jobs.
Massive challenges ahead
Aw told University World News that the decline suggested in the Fall 2024 Outlook might be the best-case scenario. Pointing to the fact that India and China account for more than half of overall international student enrolment, she explained the remorseless logic of statistics if the government does not solve the problem, especially with India, in the next week or two. Because of this, Aw considers 30% to 40% a “conservative estimate”.
“When you think about the top two countries bringing 50% of the students, and they’re having massive challenges [getting interviews, let alone visas], you can imagine what this means statistically.
In the case of India, 15 members of the US House of Representatives have asked for the State Department to “get in there and fix the problem as soon as possible”, she said.
Loss of trust in US
Aw warned that the visa delays and rejections could cause long-term damage to America’s reputation.
“At a time when the world is moving at the speed at which it's moving right now, and when there's increased competition for international students in terms of destinations, the compounded measures that have [been put in] place since March certainly shed light on the desirability issue for students and their families and for the field in general.
“We are concerned about the desirability of the US, and not just for today and tomorrow, but for the foreseeable future, so that's the first thing.
In addition, she pointed to the importance of trust in the kind of high-stakes decisions that students make about where to study.
“There’s been an erosion of trust when it comes to students and their families about ‘should I be coming to the US?’ and so forth, because of the level of uncertainty that has been introduced over the last several months; that’s going to have short mid-term and potentially long-term consequences,” she said.
“This is not one of those things that you can just switch on and off. It is to rebuild that trust that is going to take consistency over an extended period of time for students and their families to be convinced that there’s truly been a reversal of course. That is what it’s going to take.
“At the same time, when students have so many more options that are available to them, and when you have more and more governments that are making it easier for students and not harder [to enrol in their universities], that is part of what I see as the loss potentially for this country,” said Aw.
Aw’s concern about mid-term consequences of the delays in issuing visas and the elevated number of denials may already be affecting prospective students’ behaviour.
According to Netherlands-based Studyportals, the world’s largest online study choice portal, between the first week of January (that is, two weeks before Trump returned to the Oval Office) and 27 July, interest in studying in the US for a BA or MA declined by 52%.